Season2026·Week1
UpgradeNFL · Week 1
Not 'good players nobody has heard of' — players whose role is better than their price. Every row has to clear a real-usage gate first, because a big edge with no snaps is a lottery ticket, not a sleeper.
Breakout profile
26
Post-hype value
55
Deep sleeper
202
Watch list
80
Crowd error
The dashed diagonal is agreement. Points above it are players the model ranks higher than the crowd does — the further from the line, the larger the mispricing the model believes exists.
Ranked
| # | Player | Tier | Score | Proj | Ceil | Edge | Own% | Rank gap | Momentum | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR |
Tier
Role is expanding — snap share above positional average and short-memory scoring running 1.0σ ahead of his season baseline. Model has him 5.4 points above the crowd's price at 1.0% ownership.
Role is expanding — snap share above positional average and short-memory scoring running 1.4σ ahead of his season baseline. Model has him 4.5 points above the crowd's price at 1.0% ownership.
Role is expanding — snap share above positional average and short-memory scoring running 1.0σ ahead of his season baseline. Model has him 3.4 points above the crowd's price at 1.0% ownership.
The lazy version of this board is “sort by projection, filter to low ownership”. It produces backups on bad teams, because the cheapest players are cheap for a reason. This board gates on role before it scores anything: a candidate must clear a positional projection floor and be rostered under 22% to appear at all.
Everything that survives is scored on five terms:
Edge (28%) — projection minus the crowd's price.
Crowd error (22%) — how many spots below the model the market ranks him.
Momentum (18%) — short-memory scoring against his own season baseline. This is the term that catches a role change before the box score makes it obvious.
Role (17%) — snap share and opportunity share, the two most persistent signals in football.
Obscurity (15%) — log of projected ownership, so the edge is still there to take.
The tiers answer different questions. Breakout is an expanding role the market has not repriced — the best profile, and the rarest. Post-hype is a well-known player the crowd has written off; these produce the largest season-long edges because the name recognition means the ceiling is real. Deep is genuinely unowned with a functioning role — raid this tier in deep leagues and large-field tournaments, not in a 10-team redraft. Watch has the price signal without the role signal confirming it yet.
The honest caveat. Ownership here is modeled from public-attention signals rather than measured, and momentum on three or four games is a noisy estimate. Treat a high score as “this deserves ten minutes of your attention”, not as a verdict. The Scenario Studio is the right next stop: push the usage factors to where you think they are heading and see whether the projection still holds up.
| breakout |
82 |
| 10.6 |
| 16.9 |
| +5.4 |
| 1.0 |
| +110 |
| +1.0σ |
| +1.0σ |
| 2 | breakout | 76 | 8.7 | 17.7 | +4.5 | 1.0 | +65 | +1.4σ | +0.1σ |
| 3 | breakout | 76 | 8.0 | 15.6 | +3.4 | 1.0 | +97 | +1.0σ | +1.0σ |
| 4 | deep | 75 | 9.6 | 15.2 | +4.1 | 1.6 | +86 | +0.2σ | +1.3σ |
| 5 | breakout | 75 | 7.8 | 13.5 | +3.2 | 1.0 | +95 | +1.5σ | +0.2σ |
| 6 | breakout | 75 | 8.3 | 15.8 | +3.7 | 1.0 | +102 | +0.9σ | +0.4σ |
| 7 | post-hype | 74 | 13.3 | 26.0 | +4.8 | 3.2 | +28 | +2.4σ | +1.4σ |
| 8 | post-hype | 74 | 17.3 | 30.8 | +5.7 | 6.7 | +29 | +2.5σ | +1.5σ |
| 9 | post-hype | 73 | 16.6 | 27.9 | +5.6 | 5.6 | +36 | +1.1σ | +1.7σ |
| 10 | breakout | 71 | 8.0 | 15.1 | +3.6 | 1.0 | +61 | +0.8σ | +0.3σ |
| 11 | breakout | 71 | 13.2 | 23.2 | +3.4 | 1.7 | +13 | +2.3σ | +2.1σ |
| 12 | deep | 70 | 6.6 | 13.3 | +3.5 | 1.0 | +101 | -0.0σ | +0.1σ |
| 13 | breakout | 70 | 7.7 | 16.0 | +3.1 | 1.0 | +43 | +2.1σ | +0.0σ |
| 14 | breakout | 70 | 6.8 | 10.7 | +2.3 | 1.0 | +74 | +0.5σ | +0.7σ |
| 15 | breakout | 69 | 10.8 | 19.5 | +3.2 | 1.5 | +41 | +0.7σ | +1.2σ |
| 16 | deep | 69 | 8.0 | 13.2 | +4.0 | 1.0 | +62 | -0.1σ | -0.8σ |
| 17 | breakout | 69 | 13.4 | 23.6 | +3.2 | 1.8 | +10 | +2.6σ | +1.2σ |
| 18 | breakout | 68 | 7.2 | 12.0 | +1.9 | 1.0 | +57 | +1.1σ | +0.5σ |
| 19 | breakout | 67 | 10.2 | 19.7 | +2.5 | 1.0 | +22 | +2.3σ | +0.4σ |
| 20 | deep | 66 | 8.7 | 15.0 | +3.0 | 1.5 | +64 | -0.5σ | +1.0σ |
| 21 | deep | 66 | 9.0 | 12.6 | +2.7 | 1.0 | +32 | -0.2σ | 0.0σ |
| 22 | post-hype | 66 | 11.9 | 22.5 | +3.1 | 2.5 | +13 | +2.3σ | +0.9σ |
| 23 | post-hype | 66 | 18.4 | 31.8 | +3.2 | 8.9 | +8 | +3.0σ | +1.5σ |
| 24 | breakout | 66 | 6.1 | 10.9 | +1.7 | 1.0 | +59 | +0.9σ | +0.2σ |
| 25 | breakout | 66 | 9.9 | 17.8 | +2.8 | 1.0 | +26 | +1.2σ | +0.4σ |
| 26 | post-hype | 65 | 15.9 | 27.5 | +2.7 | 5.3 | +13 | +3.0σ | +1.5σ |
| 27 | breakout | 65 | 7.8 | 13.7 | +2.6 | 1.0 | +37 | +1.0σ | +0.3σ |
| 28 | deep | 65 | 8.2 | 14.6 | +2.5 | 1.0 | +64 | -0.6σ | +0.3σ |
| 29 | breakout | 65 | 6.8 | 11.0 | +1.7 | 1.0 | +59 | +0.8σ | +0.2σ |
| 30 | deep | 64 | 8.7 | 15.1 | +2.2 | 1.0 | +39 | +0.0σ | +0.9σ |
| 31 | watch | 64 | 6.3 | 10.8 | +1.8 | 1.0 | +65 | -0.4σ | +0.7σ |
| 32 | deep | 64 | 6.0 | 11.3 | +1.7 | 1.0 | +45 | +1.4σ | -0.3σ |
| 33 | post-hype | 63 | 14.8 | 25.6 | +3.1 | 9.4 | +18 | +2.9σ | +0.8σ |
| 34 | deep | 63 | 10.2 | 23.4 | +3.4 | 1.3 | +22 | -0.1σ | +0.7σ |
| 35 | post-hype | 63 | 17.5 | 27.6 | +3.7 | 8.4 | +8 | +2.0σ | +1.6σ |
| 36 | deep | 63 | 6.1 | 12.0 | +2.2 | 1.0 | +45 | +0.2σ | +0.1σ |
| 37 | breakout | 63 | 7.3 | 14.1 | +1.7 | 1.0 | +28 | +1.2σ | +0.8σ |
| 38 | deep | 62 | 8.7 | 12.9 | +2.6 | 1.0 | +26 | -0.1σ | +1.1σ |
| 39 | watch | 62 | 6.0 | 15.1 | +1.6 | 1.0 | +55 | +0.7σ | -0.5σ |
| 40 | deep | 62 | 7.5 | 15.3 | +1.9 | 1.0 | +56 | -0.7σ | +0.6σ |
Role is expanding — snap share above positional average and short-memory scoring running 1.5σ ahead of his season baseline. Model has him 3.2 points above the crowd's price at 1.0% ownership.
Tier
The market knows the name and has stopped paying for it: a well-known player at only 3.2% projected ownership, ranked 28 spots lower by the crowd than by the model. Post-hype profiles are where the largest season-long edges usually sit.
The market knows the name and has stopped paying for it: a well-known player at only 6.7% projected ownership, ranked 29 spots lower by the crowd than by the model. Post-hype profiles are where the largest season-long edges usually sit.
The market knows the name and has stopped paying for it: a well-known player at only 5.6% projected ownership, ranked 36 spots lower by the crowd than by the model. Post-hype profiles are where the largest season-long edges usually sit.
The market knows the name and has stopped paying for it: a well-known player at only 2.5% projected ownership, ranked 13 spots lower by the crowd than by the model. Post-hype profiles are where the largest season-long edges usually sit.
Tier
Nearly unowned at 1.6% but with a functioning role rather than a lottery ticket — this is the tier to raid in deep leagues and large-field tournaments, not in a 10-team redraft.
Nearly unowned at 1.0% but with a functioning role rather than a lottery ticket — this is the tier to raid in deep leagues and large-field tournaments, not in a 10-team redraft.
Nearly unowned at 1.0% but with a functioning role rather than a lottery ticket — this is the tier to raid in deep leagues and large-field tournaments, not in a 10-team redraft.
Nearly unowned at 1.5% but with a functioning role rather than a lottery ticket — this is the tier to raid in deep leagues and large-field tournaments, not in a 10-team redraft.
Tier
On the board because the model prices him 1.8 points above consensus at 1.0% ownership, but the role trend is not yet confirming it. Worth watching, not yet worth a roster spot.
On the board because the model prices him 1.6 points above consensus at 1.0% ownership, but the role trend is not yet confirming it. Worth watching, not yet worth a roster spot.
On the board because the model prices him 1.5 points above consensus at 1.0% ownership, but the role trend is not yet confirming it. Worth watching, not yet worth a roster spot.
On the board because the model prices him 1.4 points above consensus at 1.0% ownership, but the role trend is not yet confirming it. Worth watching, not yet worth a roster spot.