Season2026·Week1
UpgradeKC vs DEN · Week 1
QB27 yrsOhio State9 games of history
Projection
10.2
Floor
1.6
Ceiling
23.4
Edge vs market
+3.4
Confidence
80%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.3%
Spike rate
7%
Leverage
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | @ NE | 100% | 1 | 4% |
2.27×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 11 |
| 183 |
| 2 |
| -0.16 |
| 19.3 |
| 10 | vs CLE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 82 | 1 | -0.59 | 7.0 |
| 8 | @ CIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 11 | 275 | 1 | 0.33 | 20.9 |
| 7 | vs CAR | 46% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 68 | 0 | -0.53 | 4.0 |
| 6 | vs DEN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 76 | 0 | -0.83 | 4.9 |
| 5 | vs DAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 309 | 2 | 0.05 | 25.9 |
| 4 | @ MIA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 307 | 2 | 0.40 | 27.1 |
| 2 | vs BUF | 62% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 76 | 0 | -0.86 | 4.0 |
| 1 | vs PIT | 100% | 0 | 0% | 12 | 266 | 3 | 0.40 | 29.5 |