Season2026·Week1
UpgradeBUF vs HOU · Week 1
RBQuestionable28 yrsMaryland17 games of history
Projection
7.7
Floor
2.3
Ceiling
16.0
Edge vs market
+3.1
Confidence
92%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.0%
Spike rate
2%
Leverage
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs NYJ | 33% | 2 | 7% |
0.68×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 13 |
| 56 |
| 2 |
| 0.03 |
| 19.6 |
| 17 | vs PHI | 38% | 4 | 12% | 5 | 48 | 0 | -0.15 | 7.8 |
| 16 | @ CLE | 32% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0.75 | 7.6 |
| 15 | @ NE | 26% | 3 | 12% | 4 | 28 | 0 | -0.19 | 5.8 |
| 14 | vs CIN | 25% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0.10 | 5.9 |
| 13 | @ PIT | 27% | 5 | 22% | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0.42 | 5.5 |
| 12 | @ HOU | 35% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 52 | 0 | 1.34 | 8.2 |
| 11 | vs TB | 32% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 70 | 1 | 2.43 | 15.0 |
| 10 | @ MIA | 40% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0.21 | 4.6 |
| 9 | vs KC | 20% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 20 | 1 | 0.71 | 10.0 |
| 8 | @ CAR | 32% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 6 | 0 | -0.26 | 0.6 |
| 6 | @ ATL | 42% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 16 | 0 | -1.23 | 2.6 |