Season2026·Week1
UpgradeNFL · Week 1 · 2026
Everything the models currently believe, in one screen. Start with the edges, check the leverage board before you lock a tournament lineup, and read the wire for anything that moved in the last hour.
The 2026 season has no completed games yet, so every projection on this page is fit on 2025 data and carried forward. Treat it as a preseason prior, not a week-1 projection — it will re-fit automatically once real snaps exist.
Players modeled
601
Holdout R²
0.169
Residual σ
±6.8
Games on slate
0
Medallion engine
| Player | Team | Proj | Market | Edge | Conf | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 16.9 | 10.9 | +6.0 |
Contra engine
Hits his ceiling 56% of the time at a projected 3.3% ownership — 7.50× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 5 spots lower than the model does.
Hits his ceiling 40% of the time at a projected 1.7% ownership — 10.21× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 14 spots lower than the model does.
| 96% |
| baseRate +5.5 |
| ARI | 17.4 | 11.5 | +6.0 | 98% | baseRate +7.5 |
| NE | 10.4 | 5.2 | +5.2 | 87% | baseRate +2.2 |
| NYG | 13.5 | 8.5 | +4.9 | 94% | baseRate +4.1 |
| NYG | 9.0 | 4.1 | +4.9 | 98% | baseRate +1.7 |
| NYG | 9.8 | 5.4 | +4.4 | 89% | baseRate +1.1 |
| TEN | 8.1 | 4.0 | +4.1 | 90% | scoringRate +0.6 |
| MIN | 8.3 | 4.4 | +3.9 | 59% | baseRate +1.3 |
News wire
‘Didn’t Have the Same Energy When Donald Trump Called Him Low-IQ’ — Ex-NFL RB Reacts to Stephen A. Smith-NABJ Beef
‘Whose Idea Was This?’ — NFL Podcaster Calls Out Patriots Shirt That Didn’t Age Well After Dianna Russini-Mike Vrabel Scandal
Rodney Harrison's son, Christian, could be "heartbeat" of Arkansas defense
Colts Training Camp ‘Day 12’: Quick Hits
‘Would’ve Sent Chills Down My Spine 8 Years Ago’ — NFL World Reacts as Cowboys Make Big Swing By Signing 7-Time All-Pro Linebacker
Live Draft- How to have an online draft board
Kittle eyes return to practice, opener in Australia
‘A Nothing Burger,’ ‘People Are Overreacting’ — NFL Analysts Defend Giants RB Cam Skattebo As Viral Video Raises Injury Concerns
Hits his ceiling 60% of the time at a projected 5.0% ownership — 5.37× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 6 spots lower than the model does.
Hits his ceiling 42% of the time at a projected 1.9% ownership — 9.87× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 10 spots lower than the model does.
Hits his ceiling 33% of the time at a projected 1.2% ownership — 11.96× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 17 spots lower than the model does.
Hits his ceiling 47% of the time at a projected 2.4% ownership — 8.75× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 7 spots lower than the model does.
Hits his ceiling 23% of the time at a projected 1.0% ownership — 10.21× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 21 spots lower than the model does.
Hits his ceiling 44% of the time at a projected 2.2% ownership — 8.82× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 7 spots lower than the model does.
Contra engine
Nothing is meaningfully over-owned relative to its outcome distribution right now.
Ceiling board
Every metric on this site, explained by the thing that computes it.