Season2026·Week1
UpgradeHOU vs BUF · Week 1
WR26 yrsIowa State16 games of history
Projection
8.3
Floor
3.4
Ceiling
15.8
Edge vs market
+3.7
Confidence
96%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.0%
Spike rate
1%
Leverage
0.51×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs IND | 79% | 9 | 32% | 0 | 84 | 0 | 0.27 | 13.4 |
| 17 | @ LAC | 48% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0.15 | 4.9 |
| 16 | vs LV | 49% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 4 | 0 | -0.73 | 1.4 |
| 15 | vs ARI | 30% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 16 | 0 | -0.21 | 2.6 |
| 14 | @ KC | 40% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.86 | 0.0 |
| 13 | @ IND | 55% | 5 | 16% | 0 | 39 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.9 |
| 12 | vs BUF | 36% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0.91 | 0.9 |
| 11 | @ TEN | 53% | 5 | 13% | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0.32 | 7.2 |
| 9 | vs DEN | 63% | 5 | 13% | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.22 | 6.0 |
| 8 | vs SF | 71% | 6 | 16% | 0 | 69 | 1 | 0.81 | 17.9 |
| 7 | @ SEA | 78% | 4 | 9% | 0 | 13 | 0 | -0.53 | 2.3 |
| 5 | @ BAL | 67% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 18 | 2 | 1.30 | 16.8 |