Season2026·Week1
UpgradeARI vs LAC · Week 1
TEQuestionable25 yrsStanford17 games of history
Projection
8.0
Floor
3.4
Ceiling
15.1
Edge vs market
+3.6
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.0%
Spike rate
8%
Leverage
3.43×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ LA | 60% | 3 | 11% | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0.97 | 5.8 |
| 17 | @ CIN | 60% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.0 |
| 16 | vs ATL | 63% | 8 | 28% | 0 | 91 | 0 | 0.83 | 16.1 |
| 15 | @ HOU | 70% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 3 | 0 | -0.84 | 1.3 |
| 14 | vs LA | 66% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.59 | 1.0 |
| 13 | @ TB | 41% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.45 | 3.7 |
| 12 | vs JAX | 37% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0.0 |
| 11 | vs SF | 35% | 3 | 5% | 0 | 11 | 0 | -4.49 | 1.1 |
| 10 | @ SEA | 37% | 3 | 7% | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.21 | 3.9 |
| 9 | @ DAL | 40% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.60 | 6.0 |
| 7 | vs GB | 42% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 3 | 0 | -0.51 | 1.3 |
| 6 | @ IND | 45% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 34 | 0 | 1.66 | 5.4 |