Sports Betting Disclosure & Responsible Play

1. We are not a sportsbook

We do not accept, place, broker or settle wagers of any kind. We hold no gaming licence and are not a licensed operator in any jurisdiction. We have no visibility into any bet you place anywhere.

2. Our output is estimates, not advice

Projections, rankings, ownership figures, leverage scores, simulations and backtests are statistical estimates produced by models fit to public data. They are probabilistic. Weekly fantasy scoring contains a large irreducible random component — touchdowns in particular are close to a coin flip at the player-week level — and the honest expectation for a good model is a small, persistent edge over consensus, not certainty about any single game.

Nothing on this site is a recommendation to wager. A high projection, a large edge, or a favourable simulation is not a tip, a lock, or a signal to increase a stake.

3. What a “model edge” actually means

When the model says a player is underpriced, it is expressing a small statistical disagreement with a consensus, measured over hundreds of player-weeks. Individual outcomes will diverge wildly from it — that is what variance means. Anyone presenting probabilistic output as a guaranteed result, on this site or any other, is misrepresenting it.

We publish our out-of-sample error on the Backtest Desk specifically so this is checkable rather than a claim you have to take on trust.

4. Affiliate and commercial disclosure

We currently have no sportsbook or daily fantasy affiliate relationships, and no operator pays us for placement or coverage. If that ever changes:

• Affiliate links will be clearly labelled as such
• They will never appear inside a projection, ranking or recommendation
• No commercial relationship will ever influence a model output, a weight, or a ranking
• This page will be updated before any such link goes live

5. Age and jurisdiction

You must be 18 or older to hold an account. Daily fantasy and sports wagering are restricted by age and location — commonly 21+ in the United States, and prohibited entirely in some jurisdictions. Complying with the law where you are is your responsibility, not ours.

6. Play within limits

If you play daily fantasy or bet on sports, treat entry fees and stakes as an entertainment budget you have decided in advance you can afford to lose. Practical guardrails that work:

• Decide the amount before the week starts, not during it
• Never chase a loss by increasing stakes — this is the single most common path from recreation to harm
• Set deposit and time limits with the operator, in advance
• Do not play with money set aside for anything else
• Do not play to fix a financial problem
• Take scheduled breaks, particularly after a losing run

7. Warning signs

Betting more than intended; chasing losses; hiding the extent of play from people close to you; borrowing to fund it; feeling anxious, irritable or restless when not playing; or it interfering with work, sleep or relationships. If any of that is familiar, the tools on this site will not help — the following will.

8. Where to get help

• United States — National Problem Gambling Helpline: call or text 1-800-522-4700, or 1-800-GAMBLER. Free, confidential, 24/7.
• United Kingdom — National Gambling Helpline: 0808 8020 133, free and 24/7. Self-exclude from all licensed UK operators via GAMSTOP.
• Canada — ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600, and provincial services elsewhere.
• Australia — Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.
• Ireland — Gambling Awareness Trust: 1800 936 725.

Most operators offer deposit limits, cooling-off periods and self-exclusion. Using them early is far easier than using them late.

9. Self-exclusion from this site

If you would like your The Sports Desk account closed and your subscription cancelled as part of stepping back from gambling, email support@thesportsdesk.app and say so. We will action it promptly, without a retention conversation and without asking you to justify it.