Season2026·Week1
UpgradeHOU vs BUF · Week 1
QB24 yrsOhio State14 games of history
Projection
10.7
Floor
5.4
Ceiling
18.8
Edge vs market
+0.2
Confidence
92%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.0%
Spike rate
1%
Leverage
0.19×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs IND | 65% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 174 | 2 | 0.20 | 17.3 |
| 17 | @ LAC | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 244 | 2 | -0.21 | 13.8 |
| 16 | vs LV | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 187 | 1 | -0.08 | 11.5 |
| 15 | vs ARI | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 270 | 3 | 0.44 | 23.4 |
| 14 | @ KC | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 208 | 1 | 0.02 | 12.6 |
| 13 | @ IND | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 276 | 0 | 0.18 | 9.0 |
| 9 | vs DEN | 32% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0.33 | 4.4 |
| 8 | vs SF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 348 | 2 | 0.51 | 21.7 |
| 7 | @ SEA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 254 | 1 | -0.21 | 13.7 |
| 5 | @ BAL | 80% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 274 | 4 | 0.76 | 28.8 |
| 4 | vs TEN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 244 | 2 | 0.37 | 18.4 |
| 3 | @ JAX | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 226 | 1 | -0.09 | 10.4 |