Season2026·Week1
UpgradeMIN vs GB · Week 1
WR24 yrsUSC14 games of history
Projection
9.9
Floor
5.3
Ceiling
16.9
Edge vs market
-1.2
Confidence
92%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.5%
Spike rate
2%
Leverage
0.54×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs GB | 93% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 8 | 0 | -0.07 | 1.8 |
| 17 | vs DET | 78% | 1 | 7% | 1 | 65 | 1 | 2.69 | 12.5 |
| 16 | @ NYG | 67% | 3 | 13% | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.04 | 4.6 |
| 15 | @ DAL | 64% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 66 | 0 | 3.06 | 8.6 |
| 14 | vs WAS | 67% | 7 | 30% | 0 | 62 | 0 | 0.46 | 10.2 |
| 13 | @ SEA | 92% | 10 | 34% | 0 | 36 | 0 | -0.21 | 8.6 |
| 12 | @ GB | 98% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.74 | 0.0 |
| 11 | vs CHI | 96% | 7 | 22% | 0 | 20 | 1 | -0.39 | 10.0 |
| 10 | vs BAL | 95% | 11 | 27% | 0 | 35 | 0 | -0.73 | 6.5 |
| 9 | @ DET | 92% | 4 | 17% | 1 | 64 | 0 | 1.08 | 8.4 |
| 8 | @ LAC | 86% | 4 | 13% | 0 | 26 | 1 | 0.44 | 11.6 |
| 7 | vs PHI | 93% | 12 | 30% | 0 | 128 | 0 | 0.60 | 21.8 |