Season2026·Week1
UpgradeLAC vs ARI · Week 1
WR24 yrsTCU13 games of history
Projection
11.8
Floor
5.2
Ceiling
21.7
Edge vs market
+0.7
Confidence
90%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.2%
Spike rate
12%
Leverage
2.38×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | vs HOU | 75% | 8 | 26% | 0 | 98 | 0 | 0.78 | 14.8 |
| 16 | @ DAL | 58% | 5 | 18% | 0 | 104 | 1 | 1.74 | 20.4 |
| 14 | vs PHI | 76% | 3 | 13% | 0 | 8 | 0 | -0.45 | 2.8 |
| 13 | vs LV | 67% | 3 | 14% | 0 | 23 | 1 | 1.47 | 11.3 |
| 11 | @ JAX | 90% | 3 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.44 | 0.0 |
| 10 | vs PIT | 82% | 10 | 30% | 0 | 42 | 0 | -0.40 | 9.2 |
| 9 | @ TEN | 68% | 6 | 21% | 0 | 53 | 1 | 0.62 | 15.3 |
| 7 | vs IND | 89% | 6 | 11% | 0 | 30 | 1 | -0.78 | 11.0 |
| 5 | vs WAS | 82% | 4 | 13% | 1 | 49 | 0 | -0.25 | 6.9 |
| 4 | @ NYG | 92% | 13 | 34% | 0 | 98 | 1 | 0.19 | 23.8 |
| 3 | vs DEN | 87% | 9 | 20% | 0 | 89 | 0 | 0.43 | 14.9 |
| 2 | @ LV | 76% | 7 | 26% | 1 | 69 | 1 | 0.14 | 15.9 |