Season2026·Week1
UpgradeIND vs BAL · Week 1
WR25 yrsNorth Carolina16 games of history
Projection
10.6
Floor
6.8
Ceiling
16.3
Edge vs market
-0.4
Confidence
96%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.6%
Spike rate
1%
Leverage
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ HOU | 63% | 4 | 12% |
0.10×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 1 |
| 56 |
| 0 |
| -0.82 |
| 9.6 |
| 17 | vs JAX | 61% | 5 | 17% | 0 | 34 | 0 | -0.98 | 5.4 |
| 16 | vs SF | 78% | 9 | 25% | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0.31 | 11.8 |
| 15 | @ SEA | 72% | 5 | 19% | 0 | 13 | 1 | -0.04 | 10.3 |
| 14 | @ JAX | 66% | 5 | 14% | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0.27 | 6.3 |
| 13 | vs HOU | 57% | 6 | 24% | 0 | 44 | 0 | 0.04 | 6.4 |
| 12 | @ KC | 43% | 6 | 19% | 0 | 10 | 0 | -0.69 | 3.0 |
| 10 | vs ATL | 47% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1.85 | 1.3 |
| 9 | @ PIT | 67% | 9 | 19% | 0 | 57 | 1 | -0.17 | 17.7 |
| 8 | vs TEN | 64% | 3 | 11% | 0 | 39 | 1 | 1.90 | 12.9 |
| 6 | vs ARI | 51% | 7 | 23% | 0 | 42 | 1 | 0.63 | 16.2 |
| 5 | vs LV | 50% | 8 | 26% | 0 | 54 | 0 | 0.59 | 11.4 |