Season2026·Week1
UpgradeGB vs MIN · Week 1
TEPUP25 yrsOregon State13 games of history
Projection
8.2
Floor
5.6
Ceiling
12.1
Edge vs market
+1.6
Confidence
90%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.0%
Spike rate
1%
Leverage
0.27×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | @ CHI | 76% | 3 | 13% | 0 | 38 | 0 | 1.13 | 6.8 |
| 15 | @ DEN | 52% | 6 | 17% | 0 | 52 | 0 | 0.51 | 9.2 |
| 14 | vs CHI | 40% | 4 | 17% | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.35 | 4.2 |
| 13 | @ DET | 59% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 23 | 0 | 1.90 | 3.3 |
| 12 | vs MIN | 38% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 7 | 0 | -0.20 | 1.7 |
| 11 | @ NYG | 35% | 2 | 8% | 0 | -1 | 0 | -0.77 | 0.9 |
| 10 | vs PHI | 76% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 23 | 0 | -0.14 | 5.3 |
| 9 | vs CAR | 46% | 3 | 9% | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0.35 | 6.4 |
| 8 | @ PIT | 19% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 5 | 0 | -0.26 | 1.5 |
| 6 | vs CIN | 34% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 7 | 0 | -0.14 | 1.7 |
| 4 | @ DAL | 30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.17 | 1.6 |
| 2 | vs WAS | 31% | 2 | 7% | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1.20 | 5.2 |