Season2026·Week1
UpgradeJAX vs CLE · Week 1
TE25 yrsPenn State12 games of history
Projection
13.0
Floor
8.3
Ceiling
20.1
Edge vs market
+1.5
Confidence
88%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
4.0%
Spike rate
34%
Leverage
3.86×
Hits his ceiling 34% of the time at a projected 4.0% ownership — 3.86× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 2 spots lower than the model does.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs TEN | 62% | 6 | 19% | 0 | 52 | 1 | 0.82 | 17.2 |
| 17 | @ IND | 81% | 5 | 14% | 0 | 54 | 0 | 0.88 | 8.4 |
| 16 | @ DEN | 74% | 7 | 20% | 0 | 39 | 1 | 0.14 | 14.9 |
| 15 | vs NYJ | 82% | 3 | 11% | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.18 | 3.6 |
| 14 | vs IND | 80% | 6 | 19% | 0 | 27 | 0 | -0.14 | 5.7 |
| 13 | @ TEN | 84% | 4 | 16% | 0 | 45 | 1 | 0.52 | 13.5 |
| 12 | @ ARI | 71% | 5 | 17% | 0 | 93 | 0 | 1.31 | 14.3 |
| 5 | vs KC | 38% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1.30 | 3.2 |
| 4 | @ SF | 74% | 7 | 23% | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0.33 | 10.5 |
| 3 | vs HOU | 83% | 7 | 18% | 0 | 61 | 0 | 0.30 | 12.1 |
| 2 | @ CIN | 90% | 5 | 12% | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0.02 | 4.7 |
| 1 | vs CAR | 79% | 4 | 14% | 0 | 59 | 0 | 1.75 | 9.9 |