Season2026·Week1
UpgradeCAR vs CHI · Week 1
QB25 yrsAlabama16 games of history
Projection
10.6
Floor
3.9
Ceiling
20.8
Edge vs market
+1.0
Confidence
96%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.9%
Spike rate
3%
Leverage
0.68×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 265 | 2 | 0.13 | 16.5 |
| 17 | vs SEA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 81 | 1 | -0.70 | 8.9 |
| 16 | vs TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 211 | 2 | 0.13 | 17.6 |
| 15 | @ NO | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 212 | 1 | 0.33 | 15.4 |
| 13 | vs LA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 229 | 3 | 0.60 | 22.5 |
| 12 | @ SF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 184 | 1 | -0.27 | 8.3 |
| 11 | @ ATL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 447 | 3 | 0.31 | 31.8 |
| 10 | vs NO | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 130 | 0 | -0.58 | 1.6 |
| 9 | @ GB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0.01 | 3.0 |
| 7 | @ NYJ | 69% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 148 | 1 | -0.01 | 10.5 |
| 6 | vs DAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 204 | 3 | 0.07 | 18.5 |
| 5 | vs MIA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 199 | 2 | -0.03 | 12.0 |