Season2026·Week1
UpgradeKC vs DEN · Week 1
RB25 yrsMichigan State17 games of history
Projection
12.3
Floor
5.5
Ceiling
22.7
Edge vs market
-1.1
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.0%
Spike rate
14%
Leverage
2.10×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ SF | 42% | 4 | 15% | 16 | 133 | 0 | 0.24 | 17.3 |
| 17 | @ CAR | 47% | 2 | 8% | 15 | 57 | 0 | -0.34 | 7.7 |
| 16 | vs LA | 44% | 3 | 10% | 11 | 164 | 1 | 0.51 | 25.4 |
| 15 | vs IND | 42% | 1 | 3% | 9 | 19 | 0 | -0.57 | 2.9 |
| 14 | @ ATL | 52% | 3 | 10% | 10 | 28 | 0 | -0.34 | 3.8 |
| 13 | vs MIN | 55% | 4 | 17% | 13 | 74 | 0 | -0.06 | 10.4 |
| 12 | @ TEN | 62% | 4 | 16% | 11 | 101 | 0 | 0.01 | 13.1 |
| 11 | @ LA | 51% | 3 | 7% | 16 | 111 | 1 | 0.09 | 20.1 |
| 10 | vs ARI | 44% | 1 | 8% | 14 | 70 | 0 | -0.09 | 8.0 |
| 9 | @ WAS | 57% | 2 | 8% | 11 | 61 | 0 | 0.05 | 8.1 |
| 7 | vs HOU | 44% | 0 | 0% | 17 | 66 | 0 | -0.26 | 6.6 |
| 6 | @ JAX | 35% | 1 | 4% | 10 | 37 | 0 | -0.15 | 4.7 |