Season2026·Week1
UpgradeBUF vs HOU · Week 1
RB26 yrsGeorgia17 games of history
Projection
14.8
Floor
5.3
Ceiling
29.4
Edge vs market
-2.3
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
5.0%
Spike rate
30%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs NYJ | 3% | 0 | 0% |
Leverage
2.69×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 2 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0.39 |
| 1.5 |
| 17 | vs PHI | 51% | 4 | 12% | 20 | 77 | 0 | -0.23 | 8.7 |
| 16 | @ CLE | 56% | 2 | 11% | 16 | 134 | 2 | 0.38 | 26.4 |
| 15 | @ NE | 67% | 3 | 12% | 22 | 111 | 3 | 0.19 | 31.1 |
| 14 | vs CIN | 75% | 2 | 7% | 18 | 111 | 0 | -0.32 | 11.1 |
| 13 | @ PIT | 61% | 3 | 13% | 32 | 177 | 0 | -0.14 | 18.7 |
| 12 | @ HOU | 55% | 3 | 9% | 17 | 129 | 1 | -0.07 | 21.9 |
| 11 | vs TB | 66% | 3 | 10% | 16 | 114 | 1 | 0.04 | 20.4 |
| 10 | @ MIA | 50% | 5 | 13% | 13 | 77 | 0 | -0.29 | 10.7 |
| 9 | vs KC | 76% | 1 | 4% | 27 | 125 | 0 | -0.03 | 13.5 |
| 8 | @ CAR | 44% | 0 | 0% | 19 | 216 | 2 | 0.81 | 33.6 |
| 6 | @ ATL | 53% | 0 | 0% | 17 | 87 | 0 | 0.11 | 8.7 |