Season2026·Week1
UpgradeATL vs PIT · Week 1
WR25 yrsUSC12 games of history
Projection
15.2
Floor
4.8
Ceiling
31.0
Edge vs market
-1.5
Confidence
88%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
4.7%
Spike rate
33%
Leverage
3.10×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs NO | 94% | 8 | 27% | 0 | 78 | 1 | 0.56 | 17.8 |
| 17 | vs LA | 98% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 4 | 0 | -0.32 | 1.4 |
| 16 | @ ARI | 69% | 8 | 24% | 0 | 27 | 0 | -0.22 | 5.7 |
| 11 | vs CAR | 92% | 9 | 31% | 0 | 119 | 0 | 0.98 | 18.9 |
| 10 | @ IND | 98% | 8 | 32% | 0 | 104 | 1 | 0.98 | 24.4 |
| 9 | @ NE | 98% | 14 | 41% | 0 | 118 | 3 | 0.82 | 38.8 |
| 7 | @ SF | 98% | 10 | 28% | 0 | 42 | 0 | -0.84 | 8.2 |
| 6 | vs BUF | 97% | 16 | 52% | 0 | 158 | 1 | 0.28 | 31.8 |
| 4 | vs WAS | 85% | 10 | 38% | 0 | 110 | 1 | 0.40 | 25.0 |
| 3 | @ CAR | 86% | 8 | 20% | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0.33 | 10.5 |
| 2 | @ MIN | 85% | 4 | 19% | 0 | 49 | 0 | -0.63 | 5.9 |
| 1 | vs TB | 88% | 15 | 36% | 0 | 55 | 0 | -0.37 | 13.5 |