Season2026·Week1
UpgradeHOU vs BUF · Week 1
WR27 yrsMichigan15 games of history
Projection
15.2
Floor
9.2
Ceiling
24.3
Edge vs market
-0.7
Confidence
94%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
4.7%
Spike rate
22%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | @ LAC | 68% | 4 | 15% |
Leverage
2.10×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 0 |
| 57 |
| 0 |
| 1.08 |
| 8.7 |
| 16 | vs LV | 80% | 9 | 26% | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0.19 | 9.9 |
| 15 | vs ARI | 73% | 4 | 15% | 0 | 85 | 2 | 1.99 | 23.5 |
| 14 | @ KC | 81% | 8 | 30% | 0 | 121 | 0 | 0.47 | 16.1 |
| 13 | @ IND | 75% | 10 | 31% | 1 | 105 | 1 | 0.70 | 21.5 |
| 12 | vs BUF | 75% | 3 | 11% | 0 | 55 | 0 | 1.04 | 8.5 |
| 11 | @ TEN | 84% | 10 | 25% | 0 | 92 | 1 | 0.78 | 24.2 |
| 10 | vs JAX | 89% | 15 | 34% | 0 | 136 | 0 | -0.14 | 22.6 |
| 9 | vs DEN | 79% | 11 | 28% | 0 | 75 | 0 | 0.37 | 14.5 |
| 7 | @ SEA | 51% | 10 | 22% | 0 | 27 | 0 | -0.65 | 6.7 |
| 5 | @ BAL | 57% | 5 | 16% | 1 | 60 | 1 | 0.95 | 16.0 |
| 4 | vs TEN | 86% | 6 | 21% | 0 | 79 | 0 | 0.57 | 11.9 |