Season2026·Week1
UpgradePIT vs ATL · Week 1
WRQuestionable28 yrsUSC17 games of history
Projection
11.7
Floor
5.3
Ceiling
21.3
Edge vs market
+0.3
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.1%
Spike rate
10%
Leverage
2.20×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ HOU | 89% | 4 | 12% | 0 | 11 | 0 | -0.39 | 3.1 |
| 17 | vs JAX | 86% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 16 | 0 | -0.23 | 3.6 |
| 16 | vs SF | 93% | 5 | 14% | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0.04 | 7.2 |
| 15 | @ SEA | 93% | 5 | 19% | 0 | 26 | 0 | 0.49 | 5.6 |
| 14 | @ JAX | 87% | 12 | 33% | 0 | 79 | 0 | -0.39 | 16.9 |
| 13 | vs HOU | 83% | 4 | 16% | 0 | 13 | 0 | -0.86 | 2.3 |
| 12 | @ KC | 82% | 8 | 26% | 0 | 27 | 1 | -0.26 | 13.7 |
| 10 | vs ATL | 81% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0.53 | 3.9 |
| 9 | @ PIT | 88% | 12 | 25% | 0 | 115 | 0 | 0.20 | 20.5 |
| 8 | vs TEN | 79% | 9 | 32% | 0 | 95 | 1 | 0.79 | 23.5 |
| 7 | @ LAC | 87% | 9 | 28% | 0 | 58 | 1 | 0.63 | 20.8 |
| 6 | vs ARI | 85% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.47 | 4.0 |