Season2026·Week1
UpgradeGB vs MIN · Week 1
QB27 yrsUtah State15 games of history
Projection
10.5
Floor
3.3
Ceiling
21.6
Edge vs market
-0.5
Confidence
94%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.0%
Spike rate
4%
Leverage
0.86×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | @ CHI | 36% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0.03 | 3.8 |
| 15 | @ DEN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 305 | 1 | 0.11 | 13.9 |
| 14 | vs CHI | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 233 | 3 | 0.31 | 19.3 |
| 13 | @ DET | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 238 | 4 | 0.38 | 25.8 |
| 12 | vs MIN | 91% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 154 | 0 | 0.25 | 7.1 |
| 11 | @ NYG | 87% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 181 | 2 | 0.38 | 17.7 |
| 10 | vs PHI | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 204 | 0 | -0.16 | 7.8 |
| 9 | vs CAR | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 274 | 0 | 0.14 | 9.0 |
| 8 | @ PIT | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 359 | 3 | 0.54 | 28.3 |
| 7 | @ ARI | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 201 | 1 | 0.25 | 13.4 |
| 6 | vs CIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 285 | 1 | 0.34 | 15.0 |
| 4 | @ DAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 365 | 3 | 0.53 | 26.3 |