Season2026·Week1
UpgradeLAC vs ARI · Week 1
QB28 yrsOregon16 games of history
Projection
11.9
Floor
4.4
Ceiling
23.5
Edge vs market
-1.0
Confidence
96%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.7%
Spike rate
6%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | vs HOU | 100% | 0 | 0% |
Leverage
1.05×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 6 |
| 273 |
| 1 |
| -0.21 |
| 15.1 |
| 16 | @ DAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 8 | 342 | 3 | 0.62 | 30.2 |
| 15 | @ KC | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 210 | 1 | -0.02 | 10.4 |
| 14 | vs PHI | 100% | 0 | 0% | 10 | 205 | 1 | -0.34 | 12.2 |
| 13 | vs LV | 85% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 159 | 2 | 0.28 | 12.8 |
| 11 | @ JAX | 73% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 102 | 0 | -0.63 | 3.3 |
| 10 | vs PIT | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 239 | 1 | -0.17 | 14.7 |
| 9 | @ TEN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 307 | 3 | 0.16 | 27.7 |
| 8 | vs MIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 289 | 3 | 0.48 | 25.3 |
| 7 | vs IND | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 451 | 3 | 0.16 | 27.9 |
| 6 | @ MIA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 266 | 2 | 0.38 | 18.8 |
| 5 | vs WAS | 91% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 226 | 1 | -0.04 | 14.6 |