Season2026·Week1
UpgradeCIN vs TB · Week 1
QB29 yrsLSU8 games of history
Projection
11.2
Floor
3.9
Ceiling
22.2
Edge vs market
-1.9
Confidence
76%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.4%
Spike rate
5%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs CLE | 99% | 0 | 0% |
Leverage
0.86×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 2 |
| 253 |
| 3 |
| -0.04 |
| 21.1 |
| 17 | vs ARI | 83% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 307 | 2 | 0.61 | 20.4 |
| 16 | @ MIA | 90% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 315 | 4 | 0.66 | 29.0 |
| 15 | vs BAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 230 | 0 | -0.38 | 5.5 |
| 14 | @ BUF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 284 | 4 | 0.23 | 23.4 |
| 13 | @ BAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 269 | 2 | 0.16 | 19.2 |
| 2 | vs JAX | 30% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 76 | 1 | 0.01 | 7.0 |
| 1 | @ CLE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 116 | 1 | -0.08 | 8.8 |