Season2026·Week1
UpgradeDEN vs KC · Week 1
WR30 yrsSMU17 games of history
Projection
14.0
Floor
6.8
Ceiling
25.0
Edge vs market
+2.2
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.5%
Spike rate
21%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs LAC | 78% | 2 | 9% |
Leverage
2.72×
Hits his ceiling 21% of the time at a projected 3.5% ownership — 2.72× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 11 spots lower than the model does.
Standardized factors
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| -1.28 |
| 1.5 |
| 17 | @ KC | 82% | 10 | 27% | 0 | 40 | 0 | -0.11 | 8.0 |
| 16 | vs JAX | 94% | 12 | 26% | 0 | 86 | 1 | 0.06 | 20.6 |
| 15 | vs GB | 88% | 10 | 31% | 0 | 113 | 1 | 0.83 | 24.3 |
| 14 | @ LV | 65% | 10 | 28% | 0 | 62 | 0 | 0.15 | 12.2 |
| 13 | @ WAS | 81% | 6 | 14% | 0 | 62 | 1 | 1.07 | 17.2 |
| 11 | vs KC | 92% | 8 | 22% | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0.28 | 9.9 |
| 10 | vs LV | 87% | 4 | 15% | 0 | 24 | 0 | -0.86 | 5.4 |
| 9 | @ HOU | 92% | 6 | 18% | 0 | 30 | 1 | -0.46 | 10.0 |
| 8 | vs DAL | 84% | 6 | 22% | 0 | 67 | 0 | 0.60 | 10.7 |
| 7 | vs NYG | 94% | 10 | 20% | 0 | 87 | 0 | 0.07 | 16.7 |
| 6 | @ NYJ | 80% | 3 | 12% | 0 | 17 | 0 | -0.07 | 2.7 |