Season2026·Week1
UpgradeHOU vs BUF · Week 1
TE30 yrsStanford17 games of history
Projection
14.4
Floor
9.0
Ceiling
22.6
Edge vs market
+1.3
Confidence
94%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.3%
Spike rate
46%
Leverage
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs IND | 56% | 4 | 14% |
8.73×
Hits his ceiling 46% of the time at a projected 2.3% ownership — 8.73× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 8 spots lower than the model does.
Standardized factors
| 0 |
| 73 |
| 0 |
| 1.48 |
| 11.3 |
| 17 | @ LAC | 78% | 4 | 15% | 0 | 19 | 0 | -0.72 | 4.9 |
| 16 | vs LV | 71% | 5 | 15% | 0 | 35 | 1 | 0.75 | 14.5 |
| 15 | vs ARI | 79% | 9 | 35% | 0 | 76 | 1 | 0.65 | 21.6 |
| 14 | @ KC | 74% | 4 | 15% | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0.00 | 5.2 |
| 13 | @ IND | 72% | 8 | 25% | 0 | 55 | 0 | 0.16 | 12.5 |
| 12 | vs BUF | 81% | 4 | 14% | 0 | 8 | 0 | -0.35 | 1.8 |
| 11 | @ TEN | 69% | 9 | 23% | 0 | 51 | 0 | 0.05 | 11.1 |
| 10 | vs JAX | 77% | 11 | 25% | 0 | 53 | 1 | 0.39 | 18.3 |
| 9 | vs DEN | 79% | 8 | 21% | 0 | 77 | 0 | 0.23 | 13.7 |
| 8 | vs SF | 61% | 3 | 8% | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0.52 | 4.4 |
| 7 | @ SEA | 75% | 10 | 22% | 0 | 98 | 0 | 0.62 | 18.8 |