Season2026·Week1
UpgradeBUF vs HOU · Week 1
QB30 yrsWyoming16 games of history
Projection
13.0
Floor
3.0
Ceiling
28.1
Edge vs market
-1.5
Confidence
93%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.5%
Spike rate
15%
Leverage
1.88×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | vs PHI | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 289 | 2 | -0.13 | 23.2 |
| 16 | @ CLE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 147 | 0 | -0.29 | 6.9 |
| 15 | @ NE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 11 | 241 | 3 | 0.23 | 24.5 |
| 14 | vs CIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 329 | 4 | 0.59 | 37.8 |
| 13 | @ PIT | 100% | 0 | 0% | 8 | 161 | 2 | 0.34 | 16.7 |
| 12 | @ HOU | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 273 | 0 | -0.10 | 8.1 |
| 11 | vs TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 357 | 6 | 0.46 | 42.7 |
| 10 | @ MIA | 96% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 337 | 2 | 0.08 | 19.3 |
| 9 | vs KC | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 292 | 3 | 0.44 | 28.8 |
| 8 | @ CAR | 83% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 170 | 3 | 0.43 | 23.2 |
| 6 | @ ATL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 222 | 2 | -0.26 | 15.4 |
| 5 | vs NE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 306 | 2 | 0.20 | 19.4 |