Season2026·Week1
UpgradeSEA vs NE · Week 1
QB29 yrsUSC17 games of history
Projection
9.9
Floor
3.1
Ceiling
20.3
Edge vs market
-0.6
Confidence
94%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.7%
Spike rate
2%
Leverage
0.64×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ SF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 207 | 0 | 0.09 | 8.8 |
| 17 | @ CAR | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 149 | 1 | -0.45 | 6.1 |
| 16 | vs LA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 277 | 2 | -0.06 | 19.5 |
| 15 | vs IND | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 276 | 0 | 0.10 | 11.3 |
| 14 | @ ATL | 87% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 272 | 3 | 0.34 | 22.3 |
| 13 | vs MIN | 96% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 128 | 0 | -0.33 | 3.1 |
| 12 | @ TEN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 243 | 2 | 0.29 | 17.7 |
| 11 | @ LA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 290 | 0 | -0.26 | 4.3 |
| 10 | vs ARI | 90% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 176 | 1 | -0.07 | 4.9 |
| 9 | @ WAS | 94% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 330 | 4 | 0.94 | 27.2 |
| 7 | vs HOU | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 214 | 1 | -0.10 | 8.6 |
| 6 | @ JAX | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 297 | 2 | 0.18 | 20.0 |