Season2026·Week1
UpgradeBAL vs IND · Week 1
QB29 yrsLouisville13 games of history
Projection
9.1
Floor
1.7
Ceiling
20.4
Edge vs market
-4.1
Confidence
87%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.6%
Spike rate
3%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ PIT | 100% | 0 | 0% |
Leverage
0.77×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 4 |
| 247 |
| 3 |
| 0.40 |
| 20.4 |
| 16 | vs NE | 47% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0.49 | 4.7 |
| 15 | @ CIN | 88% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 176 | 2 | 0.10 | 14.6 |
| 14 | vs PIT | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 262 | 2 | 0.02 | 21.1 |
| 13 | vs CIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 273 | 0 | -0.26 | 6.5 |
| 12 | vs NYJ | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 164 | 0 | -0.06 | 7.2 |
| 11 | @ CLE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 203 | 0 | -0.39 | 4.7 |
| 10 | @ MIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 212 | 1 | -0.01 | 16.6 |
| 9 | @ MIA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 218 | 4 | 0.33 | 25.6 |
| 4 | @ KC | 69% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 195 | 1 | -0.09 | 10.7 |
| 3 | vs DET | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 323 | 3 | 0.29 | 27.0 |
| 2 | vs CLE | 95% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 238 | 4 | 0.33 | 26.3 |