Season2026·Week1
UpgradeLAR vs SF · Week 1
QB38 yrsGeorgia17 games of history
Projection
13.3
Floor
6.9
Ceiling
23.2
Edge vs market
+2.6
Confidence
95%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.4%
Spike rate
6%
Leverage
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs ARI | 96% | 0 | 0% |
0.76×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 1 |
| 262 |
| 4 |
| 0.38 |
| 26.7 |
| 17 | @ ATL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 269 | 2 | -0.07 | 12.8 |
| 16 | @ SEA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 463 | 3 | 0.50 | 30.9 |
| 15 | vs DET | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 370 | 2 | 0.19 | 20.9 |
| 14 | @ ARI | 83% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 281 | 3 | 0.50 | 23.2 |
| 13 | @ CAR | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 242 | 2 | -0.12 | 11.6 |
| 12 | vs TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 273 | 3 | 0.23 | 22.9 |
| 11 | vs SEA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 130 | 2 | -0.14 | 13.2 |
| 10 | @ SF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 277 | 4 | 0.50 | 26.9 |
| 9 | vs NO | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 277 | 4 | 0.24 | 26.8 |
| 7 | @ JAX | 96% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 183 | 5 | 0.24 | 27.4 |
| 6 | @ BAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 182 | 1 | -0.04 | 9.3 |