Season2026·Week1
UpgradeARI vs LAC · Week 1
QB33 yrsNorth Carolina State14 games of history
Projection
12.1
Floor
7.5
Ceiling
19.1
Edge vs market
+3.1
Confidence
92%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.4%
Spike rate
1%
Leverage
0.14×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ LA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 262 | 2 | -0.08 | 15.6 |
| 17 | @ CIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 212 | 2 | -0.02 | 16.5 |
| 16 | vs ATL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 208 | 1 | -0.05 | 10.6 |
| 15 | @ HOU | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 255 | 3 | -0.04 | 20.6 |
| 14 | vs LA | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 293 | 2 | -0.05 | 19.0 |
| 13 | @ TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 317 | 2 | 0.12 | 19.6 |
| 12 | vs JAX | 98% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 337 | 1 | -0.12 | 18.7 |
| 11 | vs SF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 450 | 2 | 0.14 | 21.9 |
| 10 | @ SEA | 96% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 289 | 2 | -0.21 | 19.4 |
| 9 | @ DAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 265 | 3 | 0.20 | 24.8 |
| 7 | vs GB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 305 | 2 | -0.02 | 19.8 |
| 6 | @ IND | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 339 | 2 | 0.18 | 20.7 |