Season2026·Week1
UpgradeBAL vs IND · Week 1
RB32 yrsAlabama17 games of history
Projection
16.3
Floor
5.2
Ceiling
33.2
Edge vs market
-0.2
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
6.7%
Spike rate
37%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ PIT | 71% | 1 | 6% |
Leverage
2.50×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 20 |
| 126 |
| 0 |
| 0.01 |
| 12.6 |
| 17 | @ GB | 63% | 0 | 0% | 36 | 216 | 4 | 0.46 | 45.6 |
| 16 | vs NE | 44% | 0 | 0% | 18 | 128 | 2 | 0.12 | 22.8 |
| 15 | @ CIN | 37% | 0 | 0% | 11 | 100 | 0 | 0.38 | 10.0 |
| 14 | vs PIT | 54% | 2 | 6% | 25 | 102 | 0 | -0.08 | 11.2 |
| 13 | vs CIN | 40% | 1 | 3% | 10 | 104 | 1 | 0.45 | 17.4 |
| 12 | vs NYJ | 56% | 2 | 10% | 21 | 88 | 2 | -0.02 | 22.8 |
| 11 | @ CLE | 54% | 2 | 8% | 18 | 122 | 1 | 0.11 | 20.2 |
| 10 | @ MIN | 67% | 3 | 11% | 20 | 84 | 0 | -0.13 | 11.4 |
| 9 | @ MIA | 64% | 1 | 4% | 19 | 121 | 0 | -0.02 | 13.1 |
| 8 | vs CHI | 58% | 1 | 5% | 21 | 71 | 2 | -0.01 | 19.1 |
| 6 | vs LA | 49% | 2 | 6% | 24 | 130 | 0 | -0.08 | 14.0 |