Season2026·Week1
UpgradeNO vs DET · Week 1
QB26 yrsLouisville11 games of history
Projection
11.1
Floor
5.6
Ceiling
19.6
Edge vs market
+0.5
Confidence
85%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
4.9%
Spike rate
1%
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ ATL | 100% | 0 | 0% |
Leverage
0.12×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
| 3 |
| 293 |
| 2 |
| -0.00 |
| 21.8 |
| 17 | @ TEN | 98% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 339 | 2 | 0.56 | 21.9 |
| 16 | vs NYJ | 97% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 316 | 1 | 0.05 | 17.1 |
| 15 | vs CAR | 99% | 0 | 0% | 8 | 304 | 1 | 0.33 | 18.1 |
| 14 | @ TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 199 | 2 | 0.18 | 21.3 |
| 13 | @ MIA | 99% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 257 | 2 | -0.21 | 17.4 |
| 12 | vs ATL | 95% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 265 | 0 | -0.31 | 7.9 |
| 10 | @ CAR | 82% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 279 | 2 | 0.21 | 19.0 |
| 9 | @ LA | 90% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 178 | 1 | -0.02 | 9.2 |
| 8 | vs TB | 54% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 140 | 0 | -0.43 | 4.3 |
| 3 | @ SEA | 4% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.89 | 0.0 |