Season2026·Week1
UpgradeCAR vs CHI · Week 1
WR23 yrsArizona17 games of history
Projection
13.2
Floor
6.0
Ceiling
24.2
Edge vs market
-1.6
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.1%
Spike rate
19%
Leverage
2.64×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ TB | 88% | 6 | 20% | 0 | 85 | 0 | 0.74 | 12.5 |
| 17 | vs SEA | 83% | 4 | 19% | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2.84 | 1.5 |
| 16 | vs TB | 87% | 10 | 32% | 0 | 73 | 1 | 0.60 | 19.3 |
| 15 | @ NO | 84% | 4 | 20% | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0.32 | 4.5 |
| 13 | vs LA | 73% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 43 | 1 | 2.85 | 11.3 |
| 12 | @ SF | 91% | 7 | 26% | 0 | 35 | 1 | -0.65 | 11.5 |
| 11 | @ ATL | 86% | 12 | 27% | 0 | 130 | 2 | 0.86 | 33.0 |
| 10 | vs NO | 91% | 8 | 35% | 0 | 60 | 0 | -0.27 | 11.0 |
| 9 | @ GB | 84% | 6 | 32% | 0 | 46 | 0 | 0.38 | 8.6 |
| 8 | vs BUF | 93% | 10 | 43% | 0 | 99 | 0 | 0.48 | 16.9 |
| 7 | @ NYJ | 87% | 5 | 16% | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.29 | 6.3 |
| 6 | vs DAL | 93% | 5 | 24% | 0 | 29 | 2 | -0.68 | 17.9 |