Season2026·Week1
UpgradeIND vs BAL · Week 1
TE24 yrsPenn State17 games of history
Projection
14.5
Floor
10.6
Ceiling
20.4
Edge vs market
-1.8
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.5%
Spike rate
45%
Leverage
7.93×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ HOU | 82% | 8 | 24% | 0 | 26 | 0 | -0.63 | 7.6 |
| 17 | vs JAX | 86% | 5 | 17% | 0 | 43 | 0 | 0.83 | 9.3 |
| 16 | vs SF | 88% | 9 | 25% | 0 | 30 | 0 | -1.31 | 6.0 |
| 15 | @ SEA | 82% | 6 | 23% | 0 | 19 | 0 | -0.57 | 4.9 |
| 14 | @ JAX | 93% | 6 | 17% | 1 | 17 | 0 | -0.20 | 3.7 |
| 13 | vs HOU | 87% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 22 | 1 | -0.65 | 11.2 |
| 12 | @ KC | 86% | 7 | 23% | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0.26 | 9.5 |
| 10 | vs ATL | 88% | 10 | 38% | 0 | 99 | 0 | 0.78 | 17.9 |
| 9 | @ PIT | 85% | 7 | 15% | 0 | 26 | 0 | -0.16 | 7.6 |
| 8 | vs TEN | 74% | 5 | 18% | 0 | 53 | 0 | 0.55 | 9.3 |
| 7 | @ LAC | 92% | 5 | 16% | 0 | 69 | 1 | 1.23 | 16.9 |
| 6 | vs ARI | 88% | 9 | 30% | 0 | 63 | 1 | 0.25 | 18.3 |