Season2026·Week1
UpgradeLAC vs ARI · Week 1
RB23 yrsNorth Carolina9 games of history
Projection
13.4
Floor
7.1
Ceiling
23.0
Edge vs market
-1.4
Confidence
80%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.8%
Spike rate
16%
Leverage
1.90×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | vs HOU | 81% | 8 | 26% | 14 | 60 | 1 | -0.36 | 20.0 |
| 16 | @ DAL | 55% | 2 | 7% | 16 | 95 | 1 | 0.15 | 16.5 |
| 15 | @ KC | 36% | 1 | 4% | 15 | 65 | 0 | 0.03 | 7.5 |
| 14 | vs PHI | 31% | 2 | 9% | 13 | 67 | 1 | 0.02 | 14.7 |
| 5 | vs WAS | 58% | 6 | 19% | 12 | 70 | 0 | -0.03 | 13.0 |
| 4 | @ NYG | 89% | 5 | 13% | 12 | 165 | 1 | 0.44 | 27.5 |
| 3 | vs DEN | 79% | 7 | 16% | 19 | 129 | 1 | 0.03 | 24.9 |
| 2 | @ LV | 62% | 2 | 7% | 8 | 25 | 0 | -0.48 | 3.5 |
| 1 | vs KC | 80% | 2 | 6% | 15 | 61 | 0 | 0.01 | 8.1 |