Season2026·Week1
UpgradeDEN vs KC · Week 1
RB25 yrsUCF17 games of history
Projection
12.7
Floor
5.6
Ceiling
23.5
Edge vs market
+0.6
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.1%
Spike rate
16%
Leverage
2.36×
Hits his ceiling 16% of the time at a projected 3.1% ownership — 2.36× the field's rate of return per roster slot. The market ranks him 7 spots lower than the model does.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs LAC | 56% | 4 | 17% | 15 | 33 | 0 | -0.58 | 4.3 |
| 17 | @ KC | 65% | 6 | 16% | 14 | 76 | 1 | 0.11 | 18.6 |
| 16 | vs JAX | 59% | 5 | 11% | 7 | 121 | 1 | 0.52 | 22.1 |
| 15 | vs GB | 68% | 1 | 3% | 19 | 65 | 1 | -0.45 | 10.5 |
| 14 | @ LV | 68% | 6 | 17% | 17 | 100 | 1 | 0.31 | 22.0 |
| 13 | @ WAS | 47% | 4 | 9% | 13 | 62 | 2 | 0.08 | 21.2 |
| 11 | vs KC | 61% | 3 | 8% | 11 | 50 | 0 | -0.14 | 8.0 |
| 10 | vs LV | 28% | 3 | 11% | 4 | 18 | 0 | -0.33 | 3.8 |
| 9 | @ HOU | 32% | 5 | 15% | 2 | 56 | 1 | 0.27 | 16.6 |
| 8 | vs DAL | 27% | 1 | 4% | 7 | 51 | 3 | 0.68 | 24.1 |
| 7 | vs NYG | 25% | 2 | 4% | 4 | 2 | 1 | -0.28 | 7.2 |
| 6 | @ NYJ | 28% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 25 | 0 | -0.55 | 6.5 |