Season2026·Week1
UpgradeHOU vs BUF · Week 1
RB25 yrsUSC16 games of history
Projection
10.6
Floor
5.9
Ceiling
17.7
Edge vs market
+2.0
Confidence
96%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.9%
Spike rate
3%
Leverage
0.64×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs IND | 46% | 3 | 11% | 10 | 48 | 0 | 0.12 | 6.8 |
| 17 | @ LAC | 68% | 2 | 8% | 19 | 75 | 0 | -0.27 | 8.5 |
| 15 | vs ARI | 22% | 1 | 4% | 7 | 38 | 0 | 0.08 | 4.8 |
| 14 | @ KC | 87% | 3 | 11% | 26 | 76 | 1 | -0.09 | 15.6 |
| 13 | @ IND | 54% | 1 | 3% | 19 | 67 | 0 | -0.12 | 7.7 |
| 12 | vs BUF | 69% | 1 | 4% | 16 | 69 | 0 | 0.09 | 7.9 |
| 11 | @ TEN | 66% | 1 | 3% | 18 | 51 | 0 | -0.24 | 6.1 |
| 10 | vs JAX | 80% | 3 | 7% | 14 | 81 | 1 | 0.15 | 16.1 |
| 9 | vs DEN | 48% | 3 | 8% | 10 | 27 | 0 | -0.41 | 2.7 |
| 8 | vs SF | 40% | 4 | 11% | 11 | 111 | 0 | 0.07 | 15.1 |
| 7 | @ SEA | 63% | 5 | 11% | 10 | 35 | 1 | -0.54 | 12.5 |
| 5 | @ BAL | 39% | 1 | 3% | 7 | 24 | 0 | -0.44 | 2.4 |