Season2026·Week1
UpgradeARI vs LAC · Week 1
WR24 yrsOhio State12 games of history
Projection
10.7
Floor
3.8
Ceiling
21.2
Edge vs market
-0.8
Confidence
88%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.8%
Spike rate
10%
Leverage
2.46×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | @ CIN | 33% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.04 | 0.0 |
| 16 | vs ATL | 51% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.07 | 2.4 |
| 13 | @ TB | 61% | 7 | 19% | 0 | 69 | 0 | 0.51 | 12.9 |
| 10 | @ SEA | 91% | 12 | 27% | 0 | 33 | 1 | -0.24 | 14.3 |
| 9 | @ DAL | 72% | 10 | 34% | 0 | 96 | 1 | 0.79 | 22.6 |
| 7 | vs GB | 86% | 6 | 18% | 0 | 58 | 0 | 0.42 | 7.8 |
| 6 | @ IND | 23% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 32 | 0 | 1.46 | 5.2 |
| 5 | vs TEN | 76% | 5 | 17% | 0 | 98 | 0 | 1.68 | 13.8 |
| 4 | vs SEA | 100% | 10 | 25% | 0 | 66 | 1 | 0.12 | 18.6 |
| 3 | @ SF | 80% | 6 | 18% | 0 | 44 | 0 | 0.32 | 7.4 |
| 2 | vs CAR | 93% | 5 | 20% | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0.15 | 4.7 |
| 1 | @ NO | 89% | 6 | 21% | 0 | 71 | 1 | 0.94 | 18.1 |