Season2026·Week1
UpgradeMIA vs LV · Week 1
WR25 yrsVirginia17 games of history
Projection
8.5
Floor
4.8
Ceiling
14.1
Edge vs market
+0.6
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
2.4%
Spike rate
0%
Leverage
0.03×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | @ NE | 70% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 28 | 1 | 0.02 | 11.8 |
| 17 | vs TB | 64% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 5 | 0 | -0.90 | 1.5 |
| 16 | vs CIN | 53% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 32 | 1 | 2.13 | 10.2 |
| 15 | @ PIT | 56% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0.09 | 2.0 |
| 14 | @ NYJ | 52% | 4 | 19% | 0 | 10 | 0 | -0.46 | 4.0 |
| 13 | vs NO | 60% | 5 | 25% | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0.03 | 7.0 |
| 11 | vs WAS | 50% | 3 | 15% | 0 | 42 | 0 | 1.70 | 7.2 |
| 10 | vs BUF | 45% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0.29 | 9.3 |
| 9 | vs BAL | 70% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 61 | 0 | -0.25 | 7.1 |
| 8 | @ ATL | 62% | 5 | 19% | 0 | 36 | 1 | 0.48 | 13.6 |
| 7 | @ CLE | 64% | 8 | 27% | 0 | 30 | 0 | -0.48 | 8.0 |
| 6 | vs LAC | 44% | 5 | 17% | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0.23 | 6.3 |