Season2026·Week1
UpgradeTB vs CIN · Week 1
RB23 yrsOregon10 games of history
Projection
12.4
Floor
7.6
Ceiling
19.7
Edge vs market
-0.7
Confidence
83%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.0%
Spike rate
6%
Leverage
0.96×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs CAR | 63% | 2 | 9% | 26 | 98 | 0 | -0.10 | 10.8 |
| 17 | @ MIA | 54% | 6 | 14% | 9 | 33 | 0 | -0.61 | 8.3 |
| 16 | @ CAR | 62% | 0 | 0% | 19 | 71 | 0 | 0.04 | 7.1 |
| 15 | vs ATL | 54% | 3 | 9% | 16 | 71 | 0 | -0.11 | 8.1 |
| 14 | vs NO | 49% | 3 | 11% | 15 | 81 | 1 | -0.28 | 16.1 |
| 13 | vs ARI | 52% | 2 | 8% | 17 | 81 | 1 | 0.09 | 16.1 |
| 4 | vs PHI | 61% | 5 | 13% | 15 | 165 | 1 | 0.08 | 25.5 |
| 3 | vs NYJ | 74% | 4 | 14% | 25 | 99 | 0 | -0.32 | 13.9 |
| 2 | @ HOU | 71% | 6 | 17% | 17 | 121 | 0 | 0.10 | 18.1 |
| 1 | @ ATL | 76% | 4 | 13% | 14 | 45 | 1 | -0.26 | 14.5 |