Season2026·Week1
UpgradeBUF vs HOU · Week 1
RB26 yrsKentucky17 games of history
Projection
6.9
Floor
0.0
Ceiling
19.6
Edge vs market
-0.2
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
1.0%
Spike rate
7%
Leverage
2.99×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs NYJ | 64% | 2 | 7% | 21 | 174 | 1 | 0.35 | 25.4 |
| 17 | vs PHI | 13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0.35 | 2.6 |
| 16 | @ CLE | 16% | 2 | 11% | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0.42 | 5.4 |
| 15 | @ NE | 9% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0.86 | 2.3 |
| 14 | vs CIN | 6% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0.0 |
| 13 | @ PIT | 18% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 62 | 0 | 0.21 | 6.2 |
| 12 | @ HOU | 9% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.0 |
| 11 | vs TB | 2% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0.0 |
| 10 | @ MIA | 10% | 2 | 5% | 2 | -2 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.8 |
| 9 | vs KC | 5% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0.0 |
| 8 | @ CAR | 24% | 1 | 4% | 9 | 16 | 0 | -0.44 | 1.6 |
| 6 | @ ATL | 4% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 19 | 1 | 1.16 | 9.9 |