Season2026·Week1
UpgradeNE vs SEA · Week 1
QB23 yrsNorth Carolina17 games of history
Projection
13.0
Floor
7.5
Ceiling
21.4
Edge vs market
-0.4
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.5%
Spike rate
3%
Leverage
0.36×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs MIA | 76% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 232 | 1 | 0.58 | 15.7 |
| 17 | @ NYJ | 79% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 278 | 5 | 1.37 | 32.4 |
| 16 | @ BAL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 10 | 405 | 2 | 0.21 | 23.7 |
| 15 | vs BUF | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 198 | 2 | 0.04 | 20.5 |
| 13 | vs NYG | 100% | 0 | 0% | 6 | 294 | 2 | 0.36 | 20.5 |
| 12 | @ CIN | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 316 | 1 | 0.16 | 16.0 |
| 11 | vs NYJ | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 283 | 1 | 0.31 | 15.4 |
| 10 | @ TB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 283 | 2 | 0.03 | 18.1 |
| 9 | vs ATL | 100% | 0 | 0% | 8 | 279 | 2 | 0.02 | 16.4 |
| 8 | vs CLE | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 332 | 3 | 0.18 | 26.3 |
| 7 | @ TEN | 85% | 0 | 0% | 8 | 284 | 2 | 0.42 | 23.1 |
| 6 | @ NO | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 289 | 3 | 0.46 | 27.2 |