Season2026·Week1
UpgradeDEN vs KC · Week 1
QB26 yrsOregon17 games of history
Projection
13.1
Floor
6.3
Ceiling
23.4
Edge vs market
+1.4
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.4%
Spike rate
6%
Leverage
0.82×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs LAC | 100% | 0 | 0% | 8 | 190 | 0 | -0.07 | 10.5 |
| 17 | @ KC | 100% | 0 | 0% | 9 | 224 | 2 | 0.17 | 19.5 |
| 16 | vs JAX | 100% | 0 | 0% | 4 | 363 | 1 | -0.12 | 15.2 |
| 15 | vs GB | 100% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 312 | 4 | 0.49 | 29.1 |
| 14 | @ LV | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 227 | 1 | 0.20 | 16.0 |
| 13 | @ WAS | 100% | 0 | 0% | 2 | 337 | 1 | 0.25 | 16.4 |
| 11 | vs KC | 100% | 1 | 3% | 3 | 303 | 0 | 0.09 | 12.6 |
| 10 | vs LV | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 148 | 1 | -0.35 | 5.8 |
| 9 | @ HOU | 100% | 0 | 0% | 3 | 209 | 2 | -0.04 | 18.5 |
| 8 | vs DAL | 94% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 246 | 4 | 0.47 | 23.8 |
| 7 | vs NYG | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 327 | 4 | 0.12 | 40.0 |
| 6 | @ NYJ | 100% | 0 | 0% | 5 | 198 | 1 | 0.15 | 13.4 |