Season2026·Week1
UpgradeLV vs MIA · Week 1
WR25 yrsCincinnati17 games of history
Projection
11.0
Floor
5.9
Ceiling
18.9
Edge vs market
+2.2
Confidence
98%
Medallion engine
Each bar is that factor's fitted weight multiplied by this player's standardized value for it. Positive bars pushed the projection up relative to a league-average player at his position.
Contra engine
Proj. ownership
3.7%
Spike rate
5%
Leverage
0.60×
Ownership and outcome distribution are roughly in line — no structural edge in either direction. Own him if the projection says so, not for leverage.
Standardized factors
Game log
| Wk | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Tgt Sh | Car | Yds | TD | EPA/p | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | vs KC | 98% | 6 | 23% | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0.06 | 5.4 |
| 17 | vs NYG | 100% | 6 | 21% | 2 | 49 | 0 | -0.01 | 9.9 |
| 16 | @ HOU | 100% | 5 | 23% | 2 | 54 | 0 | 0.72 | 9.4 |
| 15 | @ PHI | 93% | 3 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.0 |
| 14 | vs DEN | 94% | 5 | 18% | 0 | 24 | 0 | -0.23 | 4.4 |
| 13 | @ LAC | 96% | 3 | 14% | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0.26 | 5.0 |
| 12 | vs CLE | 95% | 10 | 24% | 0 | 28 | 0 | -0.86 | 5.8 |
| 11 | vs DAL | 97% | 8 | 21% | 0 | 47 | 1 | 0.01 | 14.7 |
| 10 | @ DEN | 100% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0.30 | 5.5 |
| 9 | vs JAX | 97% | 4 | 11% | 0 | 38 | 0 | 0.68 | 6.8 |
| 7 | @ KC | 89% | 6 | 35% | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0.02 | 8.3 |
| 6 | vs TEN | 92% | 5 | 22% | 0 | 70 | 0 | 1.21 | 12.0 |