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Season2026·Week1

The Lab

Five tools, one argument

Projections without a distribution are guesses with false precision. Distributions without correlation are wrong at the tails. And a model that cannot be audited is a horoscope. Each tool here closes one of those gaps.

Tool

Medallion Engine

Fifteen weak signals, ridge-fitted every week, predicting one week ahead. Shows its weights, its holdout error, and where its priors were wrong.

Tool

Contra Engine

Models the crowd, then prices being different from it. Leverage, fade and trap classifications, plus expected-duplicate math for large fields.

Tool

Monte Carlo

Up to 25,000 correlated slates. Real correlation structure — stacks, backfield conflicts, shootouts — with a paired head-to-head against the chalk roster.

Tool

Scenario Studio

Change an assumption and watch the projection re-price in closed form. The fastest way to build intuition for what actually moves a number.

Tool

Backtest Desk

Walk-forward validation against a three-game baseline. The page that tells you whether the rest of the site is worth paying for.

Wire

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